Because I’ve written a few books about snowstorms, I get to hear lots of opinions about Central New York winters. But whether people love or hate snow, it seems that everyone around here always roots for a white Christmas. The thinking usually goes something like this: “Normally I don’t like snow, and after New Years, I could care less if we get any. But in December, I like a good snowstorm so we can have a white Christmas.”

That’s a nice sentiment, and why wouldn’t it be? When we think of Santa or our decorated tree or shopping in local stores, we want a holiday with snow. All this dreaming of a white Christmas got me wondering what our odds are for a picture perfect snow scene as we get closer to December 25. And while we’re on the subject, have there been storms that gave us more than the white Christmas we hoped for?

For my answer, I turned to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which covers all things related to weather in the United States. NOAA provides a myriad of probability maps and charts based on our snowstorm history and one national map was just what I was looking for. It shows the odds of a white Christmas, which it defines as there being at least one inch of snow on the ground December 25 morning.

According to the map, Central New York has a 61 to 75 percent range of possibility for its white Christmas wish to come true. Even more optimistic is the Syracuse-based News Channel 9 Storm Team’s analysis, which says “If we look at the snow depth on December 25 from the last 30 years, 22 years had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground! That’s 73 percent of the time.” Want better odds? You’ll have to head a little farther north, to Watertown, where their chances are 80 percent. And if you’ll looking for no chance of failure then be ready to move west, where there’s a 100 percent chance of a white Christmas in Crater Lake, Oregon.

Now that we know our odds, let’s look at the years when Old Man Winter heaped a whole lot of white on our holiday. Like December 25, 2002, when snow began to fall lightly that morning in eastern New York and western New England. By midday, the storm had picked up in strength, leaving folks traveling in some areas dealing with more than two feet of snow. Since most of that snow fell in 12 hours, you can imagine how fast that white Christmas appeared.

December 2010’s holiday storm was another one for the measuring stick. After blasting much of the Southeast U.S. with heavy snow, this blizzard headed our way. New York City ended up with more than 30 inches of snow, and all over upstate New York ,high winds and blowing snow just about froze land travel in its tracks. Thankfully, Santa travels by sleigh or a whole lot of kids would have been disappointed.

Over the years, we’ve put a lot of faith in our weather professionals and it’s rare that the National Weather Service’s prediction is way off base, but they did admit their mistake when Central New York got an unannounced snowstorm Christmas Day, 1974. According to Oswego’s Palladium-Times, the NWS was “embarrassed by the surprise six-inch snowstorm” that hit parts of our region. Sub-zero temperatures wrapped their embarrassment in a chilly package.

But my favorite snowstormy Christmas happened in 1969, when three days of winter weather started on the 25th. Known as the Christmas Storm, this widespread weather event was hit or miss in the Northeast. Depending on where you lived, you either felt the full impact or had no trouble enjoying your holiday traditions. Cazenovia was one of the lucky (or is it unlucky?) towns; their newspaper, The Republican, used the entire front page of its December 31 issue to boldly wish everyone a “Happy, Snowy New Year.”

That Christmas, Central New York snowbound roads caused big problems for folks visiting the area. According to The Republican, “travel was nearly impossible and all roads in southern Onondaga and Madison counties were declared closed.” This left over 200 travelers stranded in Cazenovia. With its few hotels already booked for Christmas, Cazenovia churches and townspeople came to the rescue.

In Oswego County, the Christmas Storm came at the end of a particularly snowy few weeks. In Lacona, near Sandy Creek, Dave Cowan, who’d been measuring snowfalls throughout the 1960s, reported 88 inches for their ’69-’70 winter season—more than seven feet of snow in a little over a month. It was the same for the hamlet of Mallory, in the county’s Central Square School District, where NWS observer William G. Larrabee reported 74.7 inches in December 1969. Larrabee noted that was nearly 33 inches above their normal monthly snowfall total, smashing the previous record set in—you probably guessed it — the Blizzard of ‘66.

None of us want too much snow for our holidays, but while searching for Christmas-related snowstorms, I found a gentle reminder of why a white Christmas is so important. It’s from The Mexico Independent’s column, “Nabby Ann’s Country Kitchen.” I’m not sure who Nabby Ann is or was, but here’s what she wrote in her December 22, 1965 column about the magical combination of snow and Christmas that year:

“[Mexico], the little village, is bathed in the same quaint wonder of years long ago. It is as still and remote as ever it was, when horse-drawn sleighs traveled up and down snow covered roads. You can still hear the music of the harness bells long after the sleigh has passed from sight…All these little miracles are for you and for me, but there is a secret to it all and its very simple. To become a part of it, to see and feel the beauty of the season, it must first be in the eye of the beholder.”

May we be blessed with the sights and sounds of a white Christmas this year!